一. The global copper tube market has seen both volume and price increase, with China dominating the production capacity structure

According to the latest data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the global copper tube market will reach US$28.6 billion in 2023, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in nearly a decade. Among them, China continues to lead with a 62% share of global production, and the Yangtze River Delta region alone gathers 30% of the world's copper tube production lines. The production capacity of emerging markets such as India and Vietnam is expanding rapidly. In 2023, India's copper tube exports surged 43% year-on-year, exceeding 850,000 tons.

In terms of price, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price remained at a high level of 8,200-8,600 US dollars per ton in the first quarter of 2024, pushing up the production cost of copper tubes by 12% year-on-year. According to data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the average ex-factory price of copper tubes for air conditioning and refrigeration climbed to US$9,800 per ton in 2023, up 58% from the pre-epidemic level.

二. Energy revolution creates new demands, and green transformation forces technological innovation

1、Explosion of demand in the renewable energy sector

The accelerated construction of photovoltaic power stations and offshore wind power projects around the world has driven a surge in demand for large-diameter corrosion-resistant copper tubes. Statistics from the European Energy Agency show that the purchase volume of copper tubes for wind turbines will increase by 27% year-on-year in 2023, of which the shortage of special copper tubes with a diameter of more than 200 mm will reach 150,000 tons. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act stimulates local clean energy investment, and it is expected that the import volume of related copper tubes will exceed 300,000 tons in 2024.

2、Carbon emission costs reconstruct industry logic

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) pilot has included copper products, and the production of each ton of copper tubes will increase carbon emission costs by 120-150 euros. This has forced companies to accelerate technological iteration: the "ultra-thin-wall copper tube" developed by Japan's Furukawa Electric reduces material usage by 22%; the zero-carbon factory built by Germany's Wieland Group with an investment of 230 million euros reduces the carbon footprint of a single ton of product by 89% through 100% green electricity + recycled copper technology.

三、Regional market differentiation intensifies, and geopolitics affects the supply chain

1、Competition within Asia heats up

Chinese copper pipe enterprises continue to squeeze the market share of Japan and South Korea by virtue of their scale advantages. In 2023, South Korea's dependence on copper pipe imports will rise to 71%, of which 82% will come from China. In response to competition, the Thai government announced a 15% equipment purchase subsidy for local copper processing enterprises, attracting companies such as Japan's JX Metals and Taiwan's Changchun Group to invest and set up factories.

2、The trend of "nearshore outsourcing" in the North American market is emerging

Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce show that the number of copper pipes imported from Mexico in 2023 increased by 39% year-on-year, accounting for 28% of its total imports. Equipment manufacturers such as General Electric and Trane Technologies are establishing a "same-day delivery" supply chain on the Mexico-U.S. border to avoid the risk of a 25% import tariff.

四、The recycled copper revolution rewrites the rules of the industry

The proportion of recycled copper used in copper tube raw materials has exceeded 35% for the first time (ICSG data), and European legislation requires that the proportion must reach 65% by 2030. China's Jiangxi Copper has built the world's largest recycled copper tube production line, which can process 500,000 tons of scrap copper annually and reduce energy consumption by 62% compared with traditional processes. However, technical bottlenecks still exist: the strength of recycled copper tubes is currently 8-12% lower than that of primary copper, which limits its application in high-voltage scenarios.

五、Analysis of key variables in the next three years

1、Technological breakthrough direction

New materials such as nanocrystalline copper tubes (strength increased by 40%) and copper-aluminum composite tubes (cost reduced by 35%) have entered the mass production test stage. The International Copper Association predicts that innovative materials will account for 15% of the market share by 2026.

2、Geo-risk warning

The resource nationalism policies of major copper producing countries such as Chile and Peru may lead to a further 30% increase in copper concentrate processing charges (TC/RC), which will be transmitted to the copper pipe cost side, increasing by about 5-7%.

3、Threat of substitutes

The penetration rate of aluminum tubes in the air-conditioning field has risen to 18%. The "microchannel aluminum tube" newly developed by China's Midea Group has a heat exchange efficiency 12% higher than that of copper tubes, which may rewrite the rules of the game in the industry.

Conclusion

The global chess game of the copper tube industry is undergoing a triple fission: green transformation has spawned a technological competition, regional free trade agreements have reshaped trade flows, and the material revolution has shaken the century-old technological path. In this transformation involving trillions of dollars in infrastructure investment, companies need to cope with short-term cost pressures and reserve technical chips for the industrial reshuffle in the carbon neutral era. As international metal analyst David Wilson said: "In the next decade, copper tubes will no longer be simple industrial products, but a yardstick for measuring a country's manufacturing resilience and determination to transform to a low-carbon economy."